Back into Poverty

Increase in food prices has pushed back into poverty at least 100 million people in 2008 and, according to the United Nations Standing Committee on Nutrition (here, p. 60),

erase at least four years of progress towards the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 target for the reduction of poverty. The household level consequences of this crisis are most acutely felt in LIFDCs [Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries] where a 50% rise in staple food prices causes a 21% increase in total food expenditure, increasing these from 50 to 60% of income. In a high income country this rise in prices causes a 6% rise in retail food expenditure with income expenditure on food rising from 10 to 11%. FAO estimates that food price rises have resulted in at least 50 million more people becoming hungry in 2008, going back to the 1970 figures.

According to the World Bank (here) this means that between 200,000 and 400,000 more children will died every year for malnutrition until 2015.

Thursday, 18 June 2009

Crisis from the South

According to Banco de Guatemala, for the first time since 1999, in January 2009 remittances from abroad decreased by 7.75% compared to the same month in 2008. In Guatemala remittance  flows represent 11.89% of GDP. According to the World Bank remittances can represent more than 50% of rurally-based family income and for the International Organization for Migration 30.4% of the population receives money from abroad.

Causes? Probably economic crisis and deportation of  illegal immigrants from the US.

Something is certain: remittances are a strong factor in reducing poverty in Guatemala. If flows continue to decrease is more than probable that poverty will rise in a country where, according to the government, 45,6% of children are already underweight.

Monday, 16 February 2009

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RSS r-bloggers.com

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    R is a great program for generating top-notch graphics. But to get the best out of it, you need to put in a little more work. Here are a few tips for adapting your R graphics to make them look a little better. 1) Dont use the “File/Save as…/” menu. If you set up your […]
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RSS Simply Statistics

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    All data arise within a particular context and often as a result of a specific question being asked. That is all well and good until we attempt to use that same data to answer a different question within a different context. When you match an existing dataset with a new question, you have to ask […]
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RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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    Stephen Cranney writes: For the past couple of years I have had an ongoing question/concern . . . In my fields (sociology and demography) much if not most of the published research is based on publicly available datasets; consequently, replicability is literally a simple matter of sending or uploading a few kilobytes of code text. […]
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