2018 Italian general election: Details on my simulation

This article describes the simulation behind the app that you find here

This simulation of the results for the 2018 general election is based on the results from the last two national elections (the Italian parliament election in 2013 and the European Parliament election 2014) and national polls conducted until 16 February 2018. The simulation is based on one assumption, which is reasonable but not necessarily realistic: the relative territorial strength of parties is stable. From this assumption derives that if the national support for a party (as measured by national voting intention polls) varies, it varies consistently and proportionally everywhere. A rising tide lifts all boats and vice versa. The assumption has some empirical justification. If we compare the difference from the national support (in percentage) for each district in 2013 and 2014 we see a significant correlation, especially in the major parties.

Votes to party in the 2018 Chamber districts

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Tuesday, 27 February 2018

NDVI, risk assessment and developing countries

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) estimates the greenness of plants covering the surface of the Earth by measuring the light reflected by the vegetation into space. The main idea behind the NDVI is that visible and near-infrared light is absorbed in different proportions by healthy and unhealthy plants: a green plant will reflect 50% of the near infrared-light it receives and only 8% of the visible light while an unhealthy plant will reflect respectively 40% and 30%. NDVI can then be used to quantitatively compare vegetation conditions across time and space (and indeed is quite widely used, a Google Scholar search on NDVI produced 60,500 hits).

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Thursday, 14 February 2013

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RSS r-bloggers.com

  • November 8th & 9th in Munich: Workshop on Deep Learning with Keras and TensorFlow in R
    Registration is now open for my 1.5-day workshop on deep learning with Keras and TensorFlow using R. It will take place on November 8th & 9th in Munich, Germany. You can read about one participant’s experience in my workshop: Big Data – ...
  • I’ll be talking about ‘Decoding The Black Box’ at the Frankfurt Data Science Meetup
    I have yet another Meetup talk to announce: On Wednesday, October 26th, I’ll be talking about ‘Decoding The Black Box’ at the Frankfurt Data Science Meetup. Particularly cool with this meetup is that they will livestream the event at www.youtube....
  • Le Monde puzzle [#1066]
    The second Le Monde mathematical puzzle in the new competition is sheer trigonometry: When in the above figures both triangles ABC are isosceles and the brown segments are all of length 25cm, find the angle in A and the value of DC², respectively. This could have been solved by R coding the various possible angles […]
  • «smooth» package for R. Intermittent state-space model. Part I. Introducing the model
    Intro One of the features of functions of smooth package is the ability to work with intermittent data and the data with periodically occurring zeroes. Intermittent time series is a series that has non-zero values occurring at irregular frequency (Svetuknov and Boylan, 2017). Imagine retailer who sells green leap sticks. The demand on such a […]
  • Not Hotdog: A Shiny app using the Custom Vision API
    I had a great time at the EARL Conference in London last week, and as always came away invigorated by all of the applications of R that were presented there. I'll do a full writeup of the conference later this week, but in the meantime I wanted to share the materials from my own presentation […]

RSS Simply Statistics

  • Divergent and Convergent Phases of Data Analysis
    There are often discussions within the data science community about which tools are best for doing data science. The most recent iteration of this discussion is the so-called “First Notebook War”, which is well-summarized by Yihui Xie in his blog post (it is a great read). One thing that I have found missing from many […]
  • Being at the Center
    Hilary Parker and I just released part 2 of our book club discussion of Nigel Cross’s book Design Thinking and it centers around a profile of designer Gordan Murray, who spent his career designing Formula One race cars. One of the aspects of his job as a designer is taking a “systems approach” to solving […]
  • Constructing a Data Analysis
    This week Hilary Parker and I have started our “Book Club” on Not So Standard Deviations where we will be discussing Nigel Cross’s book Design Thinking: Understanding How Designers Think and Work. We will be talking about how the work of designers parallels the work of data scientists and how many of the principles developed […]

RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science