Wars in the Backyard

The National Security Archive has just declassified eleven documents on the extra judicial arrests conducted 25 years ago by the government of Guatemala. It appears that the US embassy clearly knew that the security forces were involved in the kidnappings. In a Department of State secret report, dated March 1986, we can read:

While criminal activity accounts for a small percentage of the cases, and from time to time individuals “disappear” to go elsewhere, the security forces and rightist paramilitary groups are responsible for most kidnapping. Insurgent groups do not normally use kidnapping as a political tactic, although they did resort to kidnapping for ransom in their formative years.
First used systematically by security forces against Communist Party and members of the moderate left beginning in 1966, the practice of kidnapping became institutionalized over time. Some 6500 persons have been kidnapping or disappeared since 1977, far short of the 38,000 claimed by critics of the previous Guatemalan governments. The average number of monthly kidnapping peaked in 1984 under regime of General Mejia. At first security forces utilized kidnappings to intimidate the left and convince potential guerrilla supporters to remain neutral. Kidnapping of rural social workers, medical personnel, and campesinos became common between 1979-83. Often innocent victims were accused of being insurgents by military commissioners, other village leaders or an individual’s personal enemies or business competitors. (…) In the cities, out of frustration from the judiciary’s unwillingness to convict and sentence insurgents, and convinced that kidnapping of suspected insurgents and their relatives would lead to a quick destruction of the guerrilla urban networks, the security forces began to systematically kidnap anyone suspected of insurgent connections. This tactic was successful. Most of the insurgent infrastructure in Guatemala City was eliminated by 1984.

The Guatemalan Civil War ended formally in 1996. But violence did not. According to national newspaper Siglo XXI, in the last fourteen months, an average of 17.6 persons have been killed every day. How many during the 36 years of civil war? 15.2.

Thursday, 19 March 2009

Truth, finally. Maybe

Guatemalan newspaper La Hora affirms that, for the first time, the  government will hand to the ministerio público (attorney general) the military archives regarding cases of genocide occurred during the civil war (1960-1996). The decision was taken after the constitutional court notification to president Álvaro Colom.  In particular, the military files concern the campaign plans named “Victoria 82”, “Firmeza 83” and the operational plans named “Ixil” (1982) and “Sofía” (July 15, 1982).

So far, it is not known when this will happen. But the Secretary of peace, Orlando Blanco, confirmed that this will happened.

The archives will effect the trial for violation of human rights and genocide, began in 2000, against the former presidents of Guatemala Lucas García and Ríos Montt.

According to the Comisión para el Esclarecimiento Histórico, during the Guatemala civil war (conflicto armado interno) 200,000 people had been killed . Most of them (93%) were victims of state security forces and most of them (83%) were Maya. Between 500,000 and 1.5 million people were displaced.

Friday, 20 February 2009

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RSS r-bloggers.com

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    I recently learned how to use the choroplethr package through a short tutorial by the package author Ari Lamstein (youtube link here). To cement what I learned, I thought I would use this package to visualize flood insurance claims. I … Continue reading →

RSS Simply Statistics

  • Research quality data and research quality databases
    When you are doing data science, you are doing research. You want to use data to answer a question, identify a new pattern, improve a current product, or come up with a new product. The common factor underlying each of these tasks is that you want to use the data to answer a question that […]
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    I have some exciting news about something I’ve been working on for the last year or so. I started a company! It’s called Problem Forward data science. I’m pumped about this new startup for a lot of reasons. My co-founder is one of my families closest friends, Jamie McGovern, who has more than 2 decades […]
  • Generative and Analytical Models for Data Analysis
    Describing how a data analysis is created is a topic of keen interest to me and there are a few different ways to think about it. Two different ways of thinking about data analysis are what I call the “generative” approach and the “analytical” approach. Another, more informal, way that I like to think about […]

RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

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    Mark Palko writes, “Have you seen this?”, referring to this link to this graph: I responded: Just one of those things, I think. Palko replied: Just to be clear, I am more than willing to believe the central point about the share of the population dropping while the share of the electorate holds relatively steady, […]
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    Gerd Gigerenzer writes: Behavioral economics began with the intention of eliminating the psychological blind spot in rational choice theory and ended up portraying psychology as the study of irrationality. In its portrayal, people have systematic cognitive biases that are not only as persistent as visual illusions but also costly in real life—meaning that governmental paternalism […]