Wars in the Backyard

The National Security Archive has just declassified eleven documents on the extra judicial arrests conducted 25 years ago by the government of Guatemala. It appears that the US embassy clearly knew that the security forces were involved in the kidnappings. In a Department of State secret report, dated March 1986, we can read:

While criminal activity accounts for a small percentage of the cases, and from time to time individuals “disappear” to go elsewhere, the security forces and rightist paramilitary groups are responsible for most kidnapping. Insurgent groups do not normally use kidnapping as a political tactic, although they did resort to kidnapping for ransom in their formative years.
First used systematically by security forces against Communist Party and members of the moderate left beginning in 1966, the practice of kidnapping became institutionalized over time. Some 6500 persons have been kidnapping or disappeared since 1977, far short of the 38,000 claimed by critics of the previous Guatemalan governments. The average number of monthly kidnapping peaked in 1984 under regime of General Mejia. At first security forces utilized kidnappings to intimidate the left and convince potential guerrilla supporters to remain neutral. Kidnapping of rural social workers, medical personnel, and campesinos became common between 1979-83. Often innocent victims were accused of being insurgents by military commissioners, other village leaders or an individual’s personal enemies or business competitors. (…) In the cities, out of frustration from the judiciary’s unwillingness to convict and sentence insurgents, and convinced that kidnapping of suspected insurgents and their relatives would lead to a quick destruction of the guerrilla urban networks, the security forces began to systematically kidnap anyone suspected of insurgent connections. This tactic was successful. Most of the insurgent infrastructure in Guatemala City was eliminated by 1984.

The Guatemalan Civil War ended formally in 1996. But violence did not. According to national newspaper Siglo XXI, in the last fourteen months, an average of 17.6 persons have been killed every day. How many during the 36 years of civil war? 15.2.

Thursday, 19 March 2009

Truth, finally. Maybe

Guatemalan newspaper La Hora affirms that, for the first time, the  government will hand to the ministerio público (attorney general) the military archives regarding cases of genocide occurred during the civil war (1960-1996). The decision was taken after the constitutional court notification to president Álvaro Colom.  In particular, the military files concern the campaign plans named “Victoria 82”, “Firmeza 83” and the operational plans named “Ixil” (1982) and “Sofía” (July 15, 1982).

So far, it is not known when this will happen. But the Secretary of peace, Orlando Blanco, confirmed that this will happened.

The archives will effect the trial for violation of human rights and genocide, began in 2000, against the former presidents of Guatemala Lucas García and Ríos Montt.

According to the Comisión para el Esclarecimiento Histórico, during the Guatemala civil war (conflicto armado interno) 200,000 people had been killed . Most of them (93%) were victims of state security forces and most of them (83%) were Maya. Between 500,000 and 1.5 million people were displaced.

Friday, 20 February 2009

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RSS r-bloggers.com

  • COVID-19 shiny / plotly dashboard
    Governments and COVID-19: Which one stops it faster, better, has fewer people dying? These questions get answered with my dashboard. A contribution to the shiny-contest: https://community.rstudio.com/t/material-design-corona-covid-19-dashboard-2020-shiny-contest-submission/59690 Intro How did Corona spread? Using the animation feature of R-shiny this can be easily tracked.COVID-19 is the major topic in all news channels. The place I live in […]
  • RcppSimdJson 0.0.4: Even Faster Upstream!
    A new (upstream) simdjson release was announced by Daniel Lemire earlier this week, and my Twitter mentions have been running red-hot ever since as he was kind enough to tag me. Do look at that blog post, there is some impressive work in there. We wr...
  • C is for coalesce
    For the letter C, we'll talk about the coalesce function. If you're familiar with SQL, you may have seen this function before. It combines two or more variables into a single column, and is a way to deal with missing data. When you give it a list of va...
  • Introductory videos for Explanatory Model Analysis with R
    Remote teaching at my university encouraged me to prepare some video materials for Explanatory Model Analysis techniques, i.e. techniques of exploration, explanation and visualisation of predictive models.The pyramid for Explanatory Model Analysis. Lef...
  • Custom Power BI visual for Line chart with two Y-Axis
    Power BI support certain type of visuals that are by default available in the document. These are absolutely great and work perfectly fine, have a lot of capabilities to set properties and change the settings. But every so often in…Read more ›

RSS Simply Statistics

  • Is Artificial Intelligence Revolutionizing Environmental Health?
    NOTE: This post was written by Kevin Elliott, Michigan State University; Nicole Kleinstreuer, National Institutes of Health; Patrick McMullen, ScitoVation; Gary Miller, Columbia University; Bhramar Mukherjee, University of Michigan; Roger D. Peng, Johns Hopkins University; Melissa Perry, The George Washington University; Reza Rasoulpour, Corteva Agriscience, and Elizabeth Boyle, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. […]
  • You can replicate almost any plot with R
    Although R is great for quickly turning data into plots, it is not widely used for making publication ready figures. But, with enough tinkering you can make almost any plot in R. For examples check out the flowingdata blog or the Fundamentals of Data Visualization book. Here I show five charts from the lay press […]
  • So You Want to Start a Podcast
    Podcasting has gotten quite a bit easier over the past 10 years, due in part to improvements to hardware and software. I wrote about both how I edit and record both of my podcasts about 2 years ago and, while not much has changed since then, I thought it might be helpful if I organized […]

RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Noise-mining as standard practice in social science
    The following example is interesting, not because it is particularly noteworthy but rather because it represents business as usual in much of social science: researchers trying their best, but hopelessly foiled by their use of crude psychological theories and cruder statistics, along with patterns of publication and publicity that motivate the selection and interpretation of […]
  • Conference on Mister P online tomorrow and Saturday, 3-4 Apr 2020
    We have a conference on multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) this Friday and Saturday, organized by Lauren Kennedy, Yajuan Si, and me. The conference was originally scheduled to be at Columbia but now it is online. Here is the information. If you want to join the conference, you must register for it ahead of time; […]
  • More coronavirus research: Using Stan to fit differential equation models in epidemiology
    Seth Flaxman and others at Imperial College London are using Stan to model coronavirus progression; see here (and I’ve heard they plan to fix the horrible graphs!) and this Github page. They also pointed us to this article from December 2019, Contemporary statistical inference for infectious disease models using Stan, by Anastasia Chatzilena et al. […]