Il successo della Lega, i media e le “crisi” migratorie

La crescita di Salvini e della Lega è forse per la politica italiana l’evento più significativo del 2018. Nel gennaio 2018, prima delle elezioni di marzo, la Lega di Salvini era intorno al 12-13%. Alla fine del 2018 la Lega era stimata sopra al 30%. Un guadagno di quasi 20 punti percentuali in 12 mesi.

Fig 1. La crescita della Lega (media mobile dei sondaggi, 30 giorni)

(more…)

Sunday, 8 December 2019

tweets

Twitter: frbailo

links

blogroll

RSS r-bloggers.com

RSS Simply Statistics

RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • The behavioral economists’ researcher degree of freedom
    A few years ago we talked about the two modes of pop-microeconomics: 1. People are rational and respond to incentives. Behavior that looks irrational is actually completely rational once you think like an economist. 2. People are irrational and they … Continue reading →
  • Beverly Cleary is winner in third iteration of Greatest Seminar Speaker competition
    Our third seminar speaker competition has come to an end, with the final round pitting Beverly “Ramona” Cleary against Laura “Ingalls” Wilder. Before going on, I’d like to say that Alison Bechdel is the “Veronica Geng” of this particular competition, … Continue reading →
  • Replacing the “zoo of named tests” by linear models
    Gregory Gilderman writes: The semi-viral tweet thread by Jonas Lindeløv linked below advocates abandoning the “zoo of named tests” for Stats 101 in favor of mathematically equivalent (I believe this is the argument) varieties of linear regression: As an adult … Continue reading →