## 2018 Italian general election: Details on my simulation

This article describes the simulation behind the app that you find here

This simulation of the results for the 2018 general election is based on the results from the last two national elections (the Italian parliament election in 2013 and the European Parliament election 2014) and national polls conducted until 16 February 2018. The simulation is based on one assumption, which is reasonable but not necessarily realistic: the relative territorial strength of parties is stable. From this assumption derives that if the national support for a party (as measured by national voting intention polls) varies, it varies consistently and proportionally everywhere. A rising tide lifts all boats and vice versa. The assumption has some empirical justification. If we compare the difference from the national support (in percentage) for each district in 2013 and 2014 we see a significant correlation, especially in the major parties.

Votes to party in the 2018 Chamber districts

Tuesday, 27 February 2018

### blogroll

#### r-bloggers.com

• Testing for a causal effect (with 2 time series)
A few days ago, I came back on a sentence I found (in a French newspaper), where someone was claiming that “… an old variable explains 85% of the change in a new variable. So we can talk about causality” and I tried to explain that it was just stupid : if we consider the […]
• Circular regression trees and forests
A flexible framework for probabilistic forecasting of circular data is introduced, using distributional regression trees and random forests based on the von Mises distribution. Citation Lang MN, Schlosser L, Hothorn T, Mayr GJ,...
• Dynamic UI Elements in Shiny – Part 2
Continuing our effort of applying the principles of reactivity to the UI part of a ShinyApp, this blog introduces two ways of conditionally rendering UI-elements in your app. Both presented solutions accomplish the same goal, once from the server part and once from the UI part of your application. Der Beitrag Dynamic UI Elements in […]
• Data science trainings in Berlin & Hamburg
R is one of the leading programming languages for data analysis. In April and October 2020 we will bring our popular trainings “Introduction to R“ and “Machine Learning with R“ to Berlin and Hamburg. Save one of the coveted places and become a data science expert with R! Berlin Introduction to R 21.04. – 22.04.2020 […]
• The significance of the sector on the salary in Sweden, a comparison between different occupational groups
In my last post, I found that the sector has a significant impact on the salary of engineers. Is the significance of the sector unique to engineers or are there similar correlations in other occupational groups? Statistics Sweden use NUTS (Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques), which is the EU’s hierarchical regional division, to specify the […]

#### Simply Statistics

• Is Artificial Intelligence Revolutionizing Environmental Health?
NOTE: This post was written by Kevin Elliott, Michigan State University; Nicole Kleinstreuer, National Institutes of Health; Patrick McMullen, ScitoVation; Gary Miller, Columbia University; Bhramar Mukherjee, University of Michigan; Roger D. Peng, Johns Hopkins University; Melissa Perry, The George Washington University; Reza Rasoulpour, Corteva Agriscience, and Elizabeth Boyle, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. […]
• You can replicate almost any plot with R
Although R is great for quickly turning data into plots, it is not widely used for making publication ready figures. But, with enough tinkering you can make almost any plot in R. For examples check out the flowingdata blog or the Fundamentals of Data Visualization book. Here I show five charts from the lay press […]
• So You Want to Start a Podcast
Podcasting has gotten quite a bit easier over the past 10 years, due in part to improvements to hardware and software. I wrote about both how I edit and record both of my podcasts about 2 years ago and, while not much has changed since then, I thought it might be helpful if I organized […]