In 1981 poverty rate in China was 64% of the population, in 2004 the rate was 10%: it means that 500 million people stepped out of poverty (look here and here). China and South-East Asia economies were propelled by export demand and by someone else’s debt. What now? In the words of FT columnist Michael Pettis
The assumption that implicitly underlay the Asian development model – that US households had an infinite ability to borrow and spend – has been shown to be false. This spells the end of this model as an engine of growth.
It seams like bad news for economists pointing at free trade and export-led growth as a practical receipt for development. It seams like bad news for everybody. People in developing countries need to increase their income, and it is difficult to think how they could find the money in their neighborhoods.
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
In this post Dani Rodrik explains why trade theories suggest that the U.S. should liberalize trade for agricultural products (especially cotton and sugar) and abolish visa restrictions on on highly-skilled foreign workers. This will produce gains for the U.S. society as a whole and probably for the poorest part of the world population, that happens to be made up of farmers. (Of course India will probably see some of its engineers flee the country, but that is not exactly a win-win game).
But countries are not ruled by trade theories. Usually they are ruled by people seeking to keep power as long as possible. And sometimes people rely on minority groups within their society to keep themselves in power. Have a look at this paper, “The Diminishing Effect of Democracy in Diverse Societies” by Gilat Levy and Oriana Bandiera (London School of Economics and Political Science). Indeed, this can explain why western Europe heavily defends its farmers (4-5% of the population) sacrificing the common good.
An interesting theory should consider not how much a single group benefit or not from trade liberalization but how much influence the group affected by the new policy has on the decision making process. A reduction of trade barriers can help to tackle chronic poverty (have a look at the “Industrial Development Report” by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization). But barriers are not where they are because governments think they are irrational from a political (not economic) point of view.
Wednesday, 13 May 2009
The Kosovo Liberation Army (Albanian acronym UÇK) supposedly run, during the conflict of 1999, torture camps in northern Albania. According to an investigation conducted by Altin Raxhimi, Michael Montgomery and Vladimir Karaj and published (here) by the Balkan Investigative Journalism Network at least 18 people were killed in one of those, a factory compound in Kukës, Albania. Eyewitnesses say prisoner were mainly alleged Kosovo Albanian collaborationist. But as well Serbs and Roma were held in the camp. And women.
Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Hashim Thaçi, who was then the political director of the KLA, and Agim Çeku, former Prime Minister and former chief of the KLA headquarters, told the BBC they were not aware of any KLA prisons where captives were abused or where civilians were held.
The same sources that witnessed the base in Kukës, told us that the interrogators in Kukës were KLA officers who had been involved in the capture of suspected collaborators.
Both our sources concerning the base, identified several KLA officers involved in the abuses at Kukës.
One of them is currently in a top position in the judicial system in Kosovo.
After ten years, the history of the ex-Yugoslavia conflicts (so far mainly written by journalists) is still incomplete. Because the people who fought those wars are now ruling that very same land (nationalism is still an effective language to speak). And because the Balkans are the very same mirror and unconscious of Europe (Rada Iveković, 1999). The 1990s wars tell Europe where its own states are coming from: murders and deportations. And Dorian does not like portraits.
Monday, 11 May 2009
- RT @petersuderman: (This is a blue wave.) https://t.co/rfa7cEDjtR
- RT @petersuderman: "This is not a blue wave." - @jaketapper
- RT @blakehounshell: Looks like Republicans might actually PICK UP a few Senate seats.
- RT @mviser: In Florida, it's all going to come down to this one man's decision. https://t.co/R785UAdMG5
- Tech issues for infamous @nytimes needle. https://t.co/PzeHgbFONc https://t.co/5bkx3qmPRB
- This explains the wild correction saw before https://t.co/JxpHDmHElA
- @CasMudde Model's details are actually online: https://t.co/KA3ugwHgnW And what do you mean often wrong? It's a probabilistic model.
- #Midterms2018 There's been a wild correction in @NateSilver538 House forecast. https://t.co/efEVQxEbgd
- .@NateSilver538!!!! What's going on!?! https://t.co/Mt5FALmz9k
- RT @lefrasidiosho: c'ha sempre na parola bona pe tutti #Mattarella #4novembre #ForzeArmate https://t.co/spNvUT350Q
- Angela Bassa discusses managing data science teams and much more.Hugo Bowne-Anderson, the host of DataFramed, the DataCamp podcast, recently interviewed Angela Bassa, the Director of Data Science at iRobot. Here is the podcast link. Introducing Angela Bassa Hugo: Hi there Angela, and welcome to DataFramed. Angela: Thanks, thanks for having me. Hugo: It's a great pleasure to have you on the show, and I'm […]
- Preview my new book: Introduction to Reproducible Science in RI’m pleased to share Part I of my new book “Introduction to Reproducible Science in R“. The purpose of this …Continue reading →
- How to de-Bias Standard Deviation EstimatesThis note is about attempting to remove the bias brought in by using sample standard deviation estimates to estimate an unknown true standard deviation of a population. We establish there is a bias, concentrate on why it is not important to remove it for reasonable sized samples, and (despite that) give a very complete bias […]
- Data Science With R Course Series – Week 9There are only two more weeks in the course! This week will extend what you learned from the Expected Value by performing an optimization and sensitivity analysis. The optimization and sensitivity analysis will teach you how to identify the maximum bu...
- RATest. A Randomization Tests package is available on CRANThis blog post introduces the RATest package we released a while back on CRAN with my colleague and good friend Mauricio Olivares-Gonzalez. The package contains a collection of randomization tests, data sets and examples. The current version focuses on two testing problems and their implementation in empirical work, mostly related to economics. First, it facilitates […]
- The role of academia in data science educationI was recently asked to moderate an academic panel on the role of universities in training the data science workforce. I preceded each question with opinionated introductions which I have fused into this blog post. These are weakly held opinions so please consider commenting if you disagree with anything. To discuss data science education we […]
- Guest Post: Galin Jones on criteria for promotion and tenture in (bio)statistics departmentsEditor’s Note: I attended an ASA Chair’s meeting and spoke about ways we could support junior faculty in data science. After giving my talk Galin Jones, Professor and Director of Statistics at University of Minnesota, and I had an interesting conversation about how they had changed their promotion criteria in response to a faculty candidate […]
- The economic consequences of MOOCstl;dr check out our new paper on the relationship between MOOC completion and economic outcomes! Last Monday we launched our Chromebook Data Science Program so that anyone with an internet connection, a web browser, and the ability to read and follow instructions could become a data scientist. Why did we launch another MOOC program? Aren’t […]
- “Law professor Alan Dershowitz’s new book claims that political differences have lately been criminalized in the United States. He has it wrong. Instead, the orderly enforcement of the law has, ludicrously, been framed as political.”This op-ed by Virginia Heffernan is about g=politics, but it reminded me of the politics of science. Heffernan starts with the background: This last year has been a crash course in startlingly brutal abuses of power. For decades, it seems, a caste of self-styled overmen has felt liberated to commit misdeeds with impunity: ethical, sexual, […]
- Hey! Here’s what to do when you have two or more surveys on the same population!This problem comes up a lot: We have multiple surveys of the same population and we want a single inference. The usual approach, applied carefully by news organizations such as Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight, and applied sloppily by various attention-seeking pundits every two or four years, is “poll aggregation”: you take the […]
- 2018: Who actually voted? (The real story, not the exit polls.)Continuing from our earlier discussion . . . Yair posted some results from his MRP analysis of voter turnout: 1. The 2018 electorate was younger than in 2014, though not as young as exit polls suggest. 2. The 2018 electorate was also more diverse, with African American and Latinx communities surpassing their share of votes […]