How to (quickly) enrich a map with natural and anthropic details


In this post I show how to enrich a ggplot map with data obtained from the Open Street Map (OSM) API. After adding elevation details to the map, I add water bodies and elements identifying human activity. To highlight the areas more densely inhabitated, I propose to use a density-based clustering algorithm of OSM features.

(more…)

Thursday, 9 August 2018

The two alternatives to the monasterisation of the World wide web

Saint Michael’s Abbey, in the Susa Valley, Piedmont. Source: Wikipedia.

In Medieval Europe, information was physically concentrated in very few secluded libraries and archives. Powerful institutions managed them and regulated who could access what. The library of the fictional abbey that is described in Umberto Eco’s The Name of the Rose is located in a fortified tower and only the librarian knows how to navigate its mysteries. Monasteries played an essential role in preserving written information and creating new intelligence from that knowledge. But being written information a scarce resource, with the keys to libraries came also authority and power. Similarly, Internet companies are amassing information within their fortified walls. In so doing, they provide services that we now see as essential but they also contravene the two core principles of the Internet: openness and decentralisation.

(more…)

Monday, 7 May 2018

Local participation and not unemployment explains the M5S result in the South

The abundance of economic data and the scarcity of social data with a comparable level of granularity is a problem for the quantitative analysis of social phenomena. I argue that this fundamental problem has misguided the analysis of the electoral results of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and its interpretation. In this article, I provide statistical evidence suggesting that — in the South — unemployment is not associated with the exceptional increase in the M5S support and that local participation is a stronger predictor of support than most of the demographics.

What happened

The 2018 Italian general elections (elections, since both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, were renewed) saw

  1. a significant increase in the number of votes for two parties, the Five Start Movement (M5S) and the League (formerly Northern League),

and

  1. an increase in the importance geography as an explanatory dimension for the distribution of votes.

The following two maps show where the M5S and the League have increased electoral support from 2013 to 2018. (Electoral data are always data for the election of the Chamber of Deputies).

Vote difference: 2018-2013 (a few communes have not reported all the results, notably Rome)

 

The geographic pattern is quite simple. The M5S has increased its support in the South and maintained its votes in the North, the League has significantly strengthened its support in the North but has also collected votes in the South, where it had virtually no support. The third and the fourth most voted parties, the Democratic Party (PD) and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI), have lost votes almost everywhere. If we map the results of the four parties side-by-side with the same scale, the PD and FI almost faded into the background.

Votes in the 2018 General elections

Yet, major metropolitan areas do not always follow the national trend. If Naples unambiguously voted M5S, Turin, Milan and Rome did saw the Democratic Party as the most voted party in the wealthiest districts.

Votes in the 2018 General elections (Clock-wise from top-left: Turin, Milan, Naples, Rome)

The density of the distribution of results at the commune and sub-commune level in the macro regions indicates that if the M5S electorally dominates in the South and in the two major islands, the League is the most popular party in the North.

Distribution of votes at commune or sub-commune level

The territoriality of the results, especially along the North-South dimension, makes the analysis especially complicated. This because the strong result of the League in the North and of the M5S in the South might simplistically suggest that immigration (which is much stronger in the North) explains the League’s result in the North and unemployment and poverty (stronger in the South) explain the M5S’s result in the South. This reading is especially attractive since immigration and the M5S proposal to introduce a guaranteed minim income have dominated the campaign.

(more…)

Tuesday, 20 March 2018

2018 Italian general election: Details on my simulation

This article describes the simulation behind the app that you find here

This simulation of the results for the 2018 general election is based on the results from the last two national elections (the Italian parliament election in 2013 and the European Parliament election 2014) and national polls conducted until 16 February 2018. The simulation is based on one assumption, which is reasonable but not necessarily realistic: the relative territorial strength of parties is stable. From this assumption derives that if the national support for a party (as measured by national voting intention polls) varies, it varies consistently and proportionally everywhere. A rising tide lifts all boats and vice versa. The assumption has some empirical justification. If we compare the difference from the national support (in percentage) for each district in 2013 and 2014 we see a significant correlation, especially in the major parties.

Votes to party in the 2018 Chamber districts

(more…)

Tuesday, 27 February 2018

Quick analysis of the Italian referendum results

The 2016 Italian referendum torpedoed the constitutional reform presented by the government presided by Matteo Renzi (41). According to the final count, which includes 1.2 million votes cast overseas, the reform was rejected by almost 60% of the voters.

Three parties played a predominant role during the electoral campaign: the ruling Democraric Party (PD), leaded by the chief of government Renzi, the Five Star Movement (M5S), founded and leaded by Beppe Grillo (68), and the Lega Nord (LN), leaded by Matteo Salvini (43). The fourth Italian party, Forza Italia, for different reasons – including the health of Silvio Berlusconi (80) – played a minor role.

(more…)

Monday, 5 December 2016

Cosa possiamo imparare dal M5S

Leggo e rispondo al post di Massimo Mantellini (Il M5S, il wifi e il principio di precauzione) in cui si evidenzia con preoccupazione come il Movimento abbia portato in Parlamento, dunque in qualche modo legittimandole, posizioni anti-scientifiche; un “pensiero tossico, banale e a suo modo inattaccabile, che nuoce al Paese intero”.

Il Movimento Cinque Stelle con un bacino elettorale che si aggira tra il 25 e il 30% (8.5-10 milioni di persone) è necessariamente complesso in termini di rappresentanza demografica e di diversità di opinione. Considerando un astensionismo del 25%, se vi trovate in fila al supermercato delle 10 persone che vi precedono circa due votano M5S. Purtroppo questa complessità raramente traspare nelle narrazioni giornalistiche, e chi fa informazione tende (troppo) spesso a preferire i tratti caricaturali (da cappello di carta stagnola o da gita in Corea del Nord, per intenderci). Ma questo tipo di informazione è sbagliata: primo perché distorce nella semplificazione, secondo perché incoraggia comportamenti macchiettistici, grotteschi e sbracati da parte di chi sedendo in istituzioni affollate cerca visibilità.

(more…)

Friday, 22 July 2016

Road to Rome: The organisational and political success of the M5S

The Five Star Movement (M5S) obtained two major victories in the second round of municipal elections on 19 June 2016 in Rome and Turin. Rome attracted the most international attention but it is M5S’ victory in Turin that is likely the most consequential for them and other European anti-establishment parties.

In Rome, a municipality with 2.8 million people and an annual budget of €5 billon, Virginia Raggi (age 37) gained doubled the votes of her contender Roberto Giachetti (age 55). In Turin, a city with a population of 900,000 and an annual budget of €1.69 billion, Chiara Appendino (age 31) outstripped Piero Fassino (age 66) by about 10 percentage points.

Continue reading on Pop Politics Aus

Friday, 8 July 2016

Explicit semantic analysis with R

Explicit semantic analysis (ESA) was proposed by Gabrilovich and Markovitch (2007) to compute a document position in a high-dimensional concept space. At the core, the technique compares the terms of the input document with the terms of documents describing the concepts estimating the relatedness of the document to each concept. In spatial terms if I know the relative distance of the input document from meaningful concepts (e.g. ‘car’, ‘Leonardo da Vinci’, ‘poverty’, ‘electricity’), I can infer the meaning of the document relatively to explicitly defined concepts because of the document’s position in the concept space.

(more…)

Tuesday, 26 April 2016

Italy’s Five Star Movement – a spectral analysis of its political composition

To talk about identity and soul of the Five Star Movement (M5S) is not only politically contentious but also practically challenging because of the different axes (at least three) along which the M5S has been developing: the vertical top-down axis from Beppe Grillo to his followers (and sympathising voters), the horizontal axis connecting thousands of militants across the country to local, flexible and loosely organised meetups, and finally the cloudy axis linking Internet users through the different online communicative platforms pertaining to the Movement. The academic literature and the media have been prevalently interested in mapping the provenance of votes. I will try here to show some data also on the position of the M5S derived from its 2013 electoral program and the political background of both the onsite and online activists of the Movement.

But let’s first start briefly introducing the trajectory of a movement that vehemently refuses to be called a party or to be associated with any traditional political identity.

Continue reading on the blog of the WZB.

Tuesday, 12 May 2015

NDVI, risk assessment and developing countries

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) estimates the greenness of plants covering the surface of the Earth by measuring the light reflected by the vegetation into space. The main idea behind the NDVI is that visible and near-infrared light is absorbed in different proportions by healthy and unhealthy plants: a green plant will reflect 50% of the near infrared-light it receives and only 8% of the visible light while an unhealthy plant will reflect respectively 40% and 30%. NDVI can then be used to quantitatively compare vegetation conditions across time and space (and indeed is quite widely used, a Google Scholar search on NDVI produced 60,500 hits).

(more…)

Thursday, 14 February 2013

tweets


Twitter: frbailo

links


blogroll


RSS r-bloggers.com

  • EARLy bird catches the worm!
    Two weeks ago was our most successful EARL London conference in its 5-year history, which I had the pleasure of attending for both days of talks. Now I must admit, as a Python user, I did feel a little bit like I was being dragged along to an event where everyone would be talking about […]
  • Introducing the Kernel Heaping Package III
    In the second part of this blog series, I showed how to compute spatial kernel density estimates based on area-level data. The Kernelheaping package also supports boundary-corrected kernel density estimation, which allows us to exclude certain areas, where we know that the density must be zero. One example is estimating the population density where we […]
  • Create stylish tables in R using formattable
    Enhance your data storytelling skills by creating display tables with pizazz.
  • Mapping the 2018 East Africa floods from space with smapr
    Hundreds of thousands of people in east Africa have been displaced and hundreds have died as a result of torrential rains which ended a drought but saturated soils and engorged rivers, resulting in extreme flooding in 2018. This post will explore these events using the R package smapr, which provides access to global satellite-derived soil […]
  • simstudy update: improved correlated binary outcomes
    An updated version of the simstudy package (0.1.10) is now available on CRAN. The impetus for this release was a series of requests about generating correlated binary outcomes. In the last post, I described a beta-binomial data generating process that uses the recently added beta distribution. In addition to that update, I’ve added functionality to […]

RSS Simply Statistics

  • Divergent and Convergent Phases of Data Analysis
    There are often discussions within the data science community about which tools are best for doing data science. The most recent iteration of this discussion is the so-called “First Notebook War”, which is well-summarized by Yihui Xie in his blog post (it is a great read). One thing that I have found missing from many […]
  • Being at the Center
    Hilary Parker and I just released part 2 of our book club discussion of Nigel Cross’s book Design Thinking and it centers around a profile of designer Gordan Murray, who spent his career designing Formula One race cars. One of the aspects of his job as a designer is taking a “systems approach” to solving […]
  • Constructing a Data Analysis
    This week Hilary Parker and I have started our “Book Club” on Not So Standard Deviations where we will be discussing Nigel Cross’s book Design Thinking: Understanding How Designers Think and Work. We will be talking about how the work of designers parallels the work of data scientists and how many of the principles developed […]

RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • You’ve got data on 35 countries, but it’s really just N=3 groups.
    Jon Baron points to a recent article, “Societal inequalities amplify gender gaps in math,” by Thomas Breda, Elyès Jouini, and Clotilde Napp (supplementary materials here), and writes: A particular issue bothers me whenever I read studies like this, which use nations as the unit of analysis and then make some inference from correlations across nations. […]
  • Don’t calculate post-hoc power using observed estimate of effect size
    Aleksi Reito writes: The statement below was included in a recent issue of Annals of Surgery: But, as 80% power is difficult to achieve in surgical studies, we argue that the CONSORT and STROBE guidelines should be modified to include the disclosure of power—even if less than 80%—with the given sample size and effect size […]
  • “Tweeking”: The big problem is not where you think it is.
    In her recent article about pizzagate, Stephanie Lee included this hilarious email from Brian Wansink, the self-styled “world-renowned eating behavior expert for over 25 years”: OK, what grabs your attention is that last bit about “tweeking” the data to manipulate the p-value, where Wansink is proposing research misconduct (from NIH: “Falsification: Manipulating research materials, equipment, […]