Il successo della Lega, i media e le “crisi” migratorie

La crescita di Salvini e della Lega è forse per la politica italiana l’evento più significativo del 2018. Nel gennaio 2018, prima delle elezioni di marzo, la Lega di Salvini era intorno al 12-13%. Alla fine del 2018 la Lega era stimata sopra al 30%. Un guadagno di quasi 20 punti percentuali in 12 mesi.

Fig 1. La crescita della Lega (media mobile dei sondaggi, 30 giorni)

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Sunday, 8 December 2019

Il voto per le europee a Milano

La geografia socio-politica delle grandi città italiane del centro-nord è radicalmente cambiata negli ultimi 25 anni. Se osserviamo la distribuzione dei voti a Milano tra i partiti alle elezioni europee del 1994, tenutesi pochi mesi dopo la straordinaria vittoria elettorale di Silvio Berlusconi nel Marzo dello stesso anno in cui Forza Italia ottenne il 21% e il Polo delle Libertà più quasi il 43%), vediamo un chiaro spostameno da destra verso il centro-sinistra e il PD.

Voti assegnati ai partiti nelle elezioni europee del 1994 e 2019.

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Wednesday, 12 June 2019

How to sync your Zotero library (and files) with WebDAV

In this post, I explain how to use an online file storing and sharing service like AARNet’s CloudStor (but any WebDAV service will do) to access and update your Zotero library from different computers.

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Sunday, 10 March 2019

recogeo: A new R package to reconcile changing geographic boundaries (and corresponding variables)

Demographics information is usually reported in relation to precise boundaries: administrative, electoral, statistical, etc. Comparing demographics information reported at different point in time is often problematic because boundaries keep changing. The recogeo package faciliates reconciling boundaries and their data by a spatial analysis of the boundaries of two different periods. In this post, I explain how to install the package, reconcile two spatial objects and check the results.

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Friday, 1 February 2019

Are you parallelizing your raster operations? You should!

If you plan to do anything with the raster package you should definitely consider parallelize all your processes, especially if you are working with very large image files. I couldn’t find any blog post describing how to parallelize with the raster package (it is well documented in the package documentation, though). So here my notes.
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Thursday, 17 January 2019

How to (quickly) enrich a map with natural and anthropic details


In this post I show how to enrich a ggplot map with data obtained from the Open Street Map (OSM) API. After adding elevation details to the map, I add water bodies and elements identifying human activity. To highlight the areas more densely inhabitated, I propose to use a density-based clustering algorithm of OSM features.

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Thursday, 9 August 2018

The two alternatives to the monasterisation of the World wide web

Saint Michael’s Abbey, in the Susa Valley, Piedmont. Source: Wikipedia.

In Medieval Europe, information was physically concentrated in very few secluded libraries and archives. Powerful institutions managed them and regulated who could access what. The library of the fictional abbey that is described in Umberto Eco’s The Name of the Rose is located in a fortified tower and only the librarian knows how to navigate its mysteries. Monasteries played an essential role in preserving written information and creating new intelligence from that knowledge. But being written information a scarce resource, with the keys to libraries came also authority and power. Similarly, Internet companies are amassing information within their fortified walls. In so doing, they provide services that we now see as essential but they also contravene the two core principles of the Internet: openness and decentralisation.

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Monday, 7 May 2018

Local participation and not unemployment explains the M5S result in the South

The abundance of economic data and the scarcity of social data with a comparable level of granularity is a problem for the quantitative analysis of social phenomena. I argue that this fundamental problem has misguided the analysis of the electoral results of the Five Star Movement (M5S) and its interpretation. In this article, I provide statistical evidence suggesting that — in the South — unemployment is not associated with the exceptional increase in the M5S support and that local participation is a stronger predictor of support than most of the demographics.

What happened

The 2018 Italian general elections (elections, since both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, were renewed) saw

  1. a significant increase in the number of votes for two parties, the Five Start Movement (M5S) and the League (formerly Northern League),

and

  1. an increase in the importance geography as an explanatory dimension for the distribution of votes.

The following two maps show where the M5S and the League have increased electoral support from 2013 to 2018. (Electoral data are always data for the election of the Chamber of Deputies).

Vote difference: 2018-2013 (a few communes have not reported all the results, notably Rome)

 

The geographic pattern is quite simple. The M5S has increased its support in the South and maintained its votes in the North, the League has significantly strengthened its support in the North but has also collected votes in the South, where it had virtually no support. The third and the fourth most voted parties, the Democratic Party (PD) and Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (FI), have lost votes almost everywhere. If we map the results of the four parties side-by-side with the same scale, the PD and FI almost faded into the background.

Votes in the 2018 General elections

Yet, major metropolitan areas do not always follow the national trend. If Naples unambiguously voted M5S, Turin, Milan and Rome did saw the Democratic Party as the most voted party in the wealthiest districts.

Votes in the 2018 General elections (Clock-wise from top-left: Turin, Milan, Naples, Rome)

The density of the distribution of results at the commune and sub-commune level in the macro regions indicates that if the M5S electorally dominates in the South and in the two major islands, the League is the most popular party in the North.

Distribution of votes at commune or sub-commune level

The territoriality of the results, especially along the North-South dimension, makes the analysis especially complicated. This because the strong result of the League in the North and of the M5S in the South might simplistically suggest that immigration (which is much stronger in the North) explains the League’s result in the North and unemployment and poverty (stronger in the South) explain the M5S’s result in the South. This reading is especially attractive since immigration and the M5S proposal to introduce a guaranteed minim income have dominated the campaign.

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Tuesday, 20 March 2018

2018 Italian general election: Details on my simulation

This article describes the simulation behind the app that you find here

This simulation of the results for the 2018 general election is based on the results from the last two national elections (the Italian parliament election in 2013 and the European Parliament election 2014) and national polls conducted until 16 February 2018. The simulation is based on one assumption, which is reasonable but not necessarily realistic: the relative territorial strength of parties is stable. From this assumption derives that if the national support for a party (as measured by national voting intention polls) varies, it varies consistently and proportionally everywhere. A rising tide lifts all boats and vice versa. The assumption has some empirical justification. If we compare the difference from the national support (in percentage) for each district in 2013 and 2014 we see a significant correlation, especially in the major parties.

Votes to party in the 2018 Chamber districts

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Tuesday, 27 February 2018

Quick analysis of the Italian referendum results

The 2016 Italian referendum torpedoed the constitutional reform presented by the government presided by Matteo Renzi (41). According to the final count, which includes 1.2 million votes cast overseas, the reform was rejected by almost 60% of the voters.

Three parties played a predominant role during the electoral campaign: the ruling Democraric Party (PD), leaded by the chief of government Renzi, the Five Star Movement (M5S), founded and leaded by Beppe Grillo (68), and the Lega Nord (LN), leaded by Matteo Salvini (43). The fourth Italian party, Forza Italia, for different reasons – including the health of Silvio Berlusconi (80) – played a minor role.

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Monday, 5 December 2016

tweets


Twitter: frbailo

links


blogroll


RSS r-bloggers.com

  • Monitoring Website SSL/TLS Certificate Expiration Times with R, {openssl}, {pushoverr}, and {DT}
    macOS R users who tend to work on the bleeding edge likely noticed some downtime at this past weekend. Part of the issue was an SSL/TLS certificate expiration situation. Moving forward, we can monitor this with R using the super spiffy {openssl} and {pushoverr} packages whilst also generating a daily report with {rmarkdown} and... Continue […]
  • Evaluate your R model with MLmetrics
    This post will explore using R’s MLmetrics to evaluate machine learning models. MLmetrics provides several functions to calculate common metrics for ML models, including AUC, precision, recall, accuracy, etc. Building an example model Firstly, we need to build a model to use as an example. For this post, we’ll be using a dataset on pulsar […]
  • Data re-Shaping in R and in Python
    Nina Zumel and I have a two new tutorials on fluid data wrangling/shaping. They are written in a parallel structure, with the R version of the tutorial being almost identical to the Python version of the tutorial. This reflects our opinion on the “which is better for data science R or Python?” They both are […]
  • Does Australia need More Fires (but the Right Kind)? A Multi-Agent Simulation
    We have all watched with great horror the catastrophic fires in Australia. Over many years scientists have been studying simulations to understand the underlying dynamics better. They tell us, that “what Australia needs is more fires, but of the right kind”. What do they mean by that? One such simulation of fire is based on […]
  • Some everyday data tasks: a few hints with R (revisited)
    One year ago, I published a post titled ‘Some everyday data tasks: a few hints with R’. In that post, I considered four data tasks, that we all need to accomplish daily, i.e. subsetting sorting casting melting In that post, I used the methods I was more familiar with. And, as a long-time R user, […]

RSS Simply Statistics

  • Is Artificial Intelligence Revolutionizing Environmental Health?
    NOTE: This post was written by Kevin Elliott, Michigan State University; Nicole Kleinstreuer, National Institutes of Health; Patrick McMullen, ScitoVation; Gary Miller, Columbia University; Bhramar Mukherjee, University of Michigan; Roger D. Peng, Johns Hopkins University; Melissa Perry, The George Washington University; Reza Rasoulpour, Corteva Agriscience, and Elizabeth Boyle, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. […]
  • You can replicate almost any plot with R
    Although R is great for quickly turning data into plots, it is not widely used for making publication ready figures. But, with enough tinkering you can make almost any plot in R. For examples check out the flowingdata blog or the Fundamentals of Data Visualization book. Here I show five charts from the lay press […]
  • So You Want to Start a Podcast
    Podcasting has gotten quite a bit easier over the past 10 years, due in part to improvements to hardware and software. I wrote about both how I edit and record both of my podcasts about 2 years ago and, while not much has changed since then, I thought it might be helpful if I organized […]

RSS Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

  • Are GWAS studies of IQ/educational attainment problematic?
    Nick Matzke writes: I wonder if you or your blog-colleagues would be interested in giving a quick blog take on the recent studies that do GWAS (Genome-Wide-Association Studies) on “traits” like IQ, educational attainment, and income? Matzke begins with some background: The new method for these studies is to claim that a “polygenic score” can […]
  • Causal inference in AI: Expressing potential outcomes in a graphical-modeling framework that can be fit using Stan
    David Rohde writes: We have been working on an idea that attempts to combine ideas from Bayesian approaches to causality developed by you and your collaborators with Pearl’s do calculus. The core idea is simple, but we think powerful and allows some problems previously that only had known solutions with the do calculus to be […]
  • My review of Ian Stewart’s review of my review of his book
    A few months ago I was asked to review Do Dice Play God?, the latest book by mathematician and mathematics writer Ian Stewart. Here are some excerpts from my review: My favorite aspect of the book is the connections it makes in a sweeping voyage from familiar (to me) paradoxes, through modeling in human affairs, […]